The Trade Lane Outlook provides a summary of the four-week risk forecast for three major trade lanes, highlighting where capacity, booking acceptance, service reliability, port performance, and transit time signals may create operational pressure.
Trade Lane Risk Matrix
A heatmap view of the four-week risk outlook, providing an at-a-glance view of the key risk areas: capacity, on-time performance, and transit time.
Signals are calculated from carrier schedules, forecast demand and supply, booking acceptance rates, shipment arrival performance, and port operating indicators to show where risk is expected to build, ease, or remain stable.
Risk Key
High: Elevated disruption risk, with a greater potential impact on booking acceptance, freight rates, or schedule and service reliability.
Medium: Emerging or moderate risk that should be monitored.
Low: Comparatively stable conditions with a lower risk of near-term disruption.
| Trade Lane | Capacity Risk | On-Time Risk | Transit Time Risk | Overall Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia → N. America | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → N. America).capacity} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → N. America).onTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → N. America).transitTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → N. America).overall} |
| Asia → Europe | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → Europe).capacity} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → Europe).onTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → Europe).transitTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → Europe).overall} |
| Europe → N. America | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Europe → N. America).capacity} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Europe → N. America).onTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Europe → N. America).transitTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Europe → N. America).overall} |
Booking acceptance and reliability remain the key risk factors despite limited capacity tightening
Freight risk is expected to remain elevated over the month ahead, driven primarily by booking acceptance risk and weak service reliability rather than a sustained capacity constraint.
The demand-to-supply ratio is expected to move from 76% in Week 37 to 100% in Week 38 before falling to 79% and then 91%. The temporary tightening in Week 38 is driven by reduced planned carrier capacity rather than stronger demand, with capacity remaining above forecast demand across the rest of the outlook.
Booking security risk remains around or above its historical average throughout the outlook, increasing to just above 40% in the later weeks. This indicates that booking acceptance risk remains elevated despite the absence of a sustained capacity constraint.
Service reliability has weakened further. Monthly on-time performance declined from 43.0% in May to 41.8% in June, 36.2% in July and 33.9% in August. Recent weekly performance has also deteriorated, falling to 29.4% in Week 35 after reaching 36.4% in Week 33. Delay severity adds to the concern, with one-to-three-day delays becoming the largest outcome in the latest week, replacing on-time arrivals.
The regional port performance signal remains below its historical average, while industry reports continue to point to elevated vessel queues across major Asian ports. This suggests queue pressure remains a potential source of schedule variability even though broader waterside operating performance has not deteriorated to the same extent.
Forward transit times range from 26.1 to 27.6 days, broadly in line with or below the 27.6-day baseline. Planned transit times therefore do not currently add a material additional risk signal.
Carrier-level performance remains widely dispersed, showing substantial differences across the top 10 carriers in both recent on-time performance and forward booking security risk, reinforcing the importance of carrier selection where shipment timing or capacity access is critical.
Carrier selection and schedule planning will remain important over the coming weeks as booking acceptance rates weaken and service reliability continues to deteriorate.
Major Regional Port On Time Arrival Risk
High Risk: ≥ 4 days delay
Medium Risk: 1 - 3 days delay
Low Risk: 0 days delay
Asia → N. America: D:S Ratio & BSR
Graph commentary: Capacity tightens temporarily in Week 38, while Booking Security Risk remains around or above its historical average throughout the outlook.
What this means
Forwarders and BCOs should monitor booking acceptance closely around the tighter Week 38 period and consider carrier-specific performance when selecting services. Capacity is available across most of the outlook, but weak reliability and significant differences between carriers mean securing space does not necessarily translate into predictable shipment execution.
Weak service reliability keeps risk elevated despite low booking and capacity risk
Freight risk is expected to remain elevated over the month ahead, driven primarily by weak service reliability rather than capacity availability or booking acceptance.
The demand-to-supply ratio remains below balance throughout the outlook, ranging from 72% to 82%. The temporary tightening in Week 39 is driven mainly by reduced planned carrier capacity, while capacity remains above forecast demand across the full month.
Booking security risk remains materially below its historical average throughout the outlook, at around 19% to 22%, indicating comparatively low booking acceptance risk.
Service reliability remains the main concern. Monthly on-time performance declined from 34.3% in May to 31.5% in June, 24.0% in July and 22.9% in August. Weekly performance remains weak, falling to 16.2% in Week 34 before recovering to 24.5% in Week 35. One-to-three-day delays remain the largest delay category, although their share fell to 30.2% in the latest week, providing no indication that delay severity is worsening further.
The regional port performance signal remains below its historical average, while industry reports continue to highlight elevated vessel queues across major Asian ports. Queue pressure therefore remains a potential source of schedule variability despite the more stable broader port-performance signal.
Forward transit times range from 40.8 to 42.9 days against a 41.8-day baseline. Planned transit times are therefore broadly around recent levels, with only a modest increase in the later weeks.
Carrier-level performance remains widely dispersed. The Carrier Risk Outlook shows substantial differences across the top 10 carriers in both recent on-time performance and forward Booking Security Risk, making carrier selection particularly important on a lane where overall reliability remains weak.
Reliability performance remains the primary consideration for shippers on this lane, making carrier selection the key focus this month despite favourable booking and capacity conditions.
Major Regional Port On Time Arrival Risk
High Risk: ≥ 4 days delay
Medium Risk: 1 - 3 days delay
Low Risk: 0 days delay
Asia → Europe: D:S Ratio & BSR
Graph commentary: Capacity remains above forecast demand throughout the outlook, while Booking Security Risk stays materially below its historical average.
What this means
Forwarders and BCOs should focus on carrier-specific reliability when selecting services and allow sufficient time in delivery commitments. Available capacity and relatively low booking acceptance risk reduce the likelihood of disruption at the booking stage, but weak on-time performance continues to create risk to shipment lead times.
Low booking and capacity risk keep the outlook comparatively stable
Freight risk is expected to remain comparatively low over the month ahead, with available capacity, low booking acceptance risk and stronger recent service reliability.
The demand-to-supply ratio remains below balance throughout the outlook, rising from 51% to 72% by Week 40. The increase is driven by reduced planned carrier capacity rather than stronger demand, but capacity remains comfortably above forecast demand across the full month.
Booking security risk remains well below its historical average throughout the outlook, at around 6% to 7%, indicating low booking acceptance risk.
Service reliability has strengthened. Monthly on-time performance improved from 37.1% in July to 42.9% in August, while weekly performance increased to 44.2% in Week 35 following relatively stable results around 39% to 44% over the preceding weeks. On-time arrivals remain the largest outcome in the delay-severity distribution, supporting the more stable reliability signal.
The regional port performance signal remains below its historical average, indicating that broader waterside operating performance remains relatively stable.
Forward transit times range from 18.9 to 19.9 days against an 18.8-day baseline. Planned transit times remain stable and only marginally above the baseline across the month.
Carrier-level performance still varies materially. The carrier risk signals shows meaningful differences across the top 10 carriers in recent on-time performance, although forward booking security risk remains comparatively low for the lane. While overall conditions remain favorable for the month ahead, performance differences between carriers continue to warrant attention when service consistency is critical.
Major Regional Port On Time Arrival Risk
High Risk: ≥ 4 days delay
Medium Risk: 1 - 3 days delay
Low Risk: 0 days delay
Europe → N. America: D:S Ratio & BSR
Graph commentary: Capacity remains comfortably above forecast demand despite tightening toward Week 40, while Booking Security Risk remains well below its historical average.
What this means
Forwarders and BCOs should face comparatively limited capacity and booking disruption on this lane. Carrier-specific reliability remains relevant where shipment timing is important, but overall conditions are more stable than on the two Asia-origin trades.
The Capacity Risk Outlook shows where forecast demand may exceed planned carrier supply, and where tightening conditions may increase booking disruption or reduce confidence in securing space.
Capacity Risk Forecast Signals
Demand to Supply Ratio
Forecast cargo demand measured against the shipping capacity carriers plan to deploy. Indicates whether there is enough capacity to meet demand, and whether pressure is building from demand growth or capacity reductions.
Booking Security Risk
Estimates the share of bookings at risk of not securing capacity by combining initial carrier rejections with risk-adjusted pending decisions. Indicates when structural tightening begins to affect booking outcomes.
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast by Trade Lane
The demand to supply ratio compares forecast cargo demand with the shipping capacity carriers plan to deploy across each trade lane. Values above 100% indicate that forecast demand is expected to exceed planned supply, increasing the risk of tighter space, booking acceptance, and upward rate pressure.
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast Trend
Weekly demand to supply ratio movement across key trade lanes. Higher values indicate tightening capacity conditions and increased exposure to booking pressure.
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast Heatmap
The Demand to Supply Ratio heatmap shows where forecast demand is expected to sit relative to planned carrier capacity. Higher values indicate tighter space conditions and greater potential for booking rejection, service variability, and rate pressure.
High Risk: > 100%
Medium Risk: Between 90% & 99%
Low Risk: < 89%
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast Trend
Weekly demand to supply ratio movement across key trade lanes. Higher values indicate tightening capacity conditions and increased exposure to booking pressure.
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast Heatmap
The Demand to Supply Ratio heatmap shows where forecast demand is expected to sit relative to planned carrier capacity. Higher values indicate tighter space conditions and greater potential for booking rejection, service variability, and rate pressure.
High Risk: > 100%
Medium Risk: Between 90% & 99%
Low Risk: < 89%
Booking Security Risk Forecast (BSR)
Booking Security Risk estimates the likelihood that booking requests will not be accepted due to capacity constraints. It combines initial carrier rejections with risk-adjusted pending booking decisions to show when market tightening is also beginning to affect booking outcomes.
Booking Security Risk Forecast Heatmap
Booking Security Risk (BSR) shows the likelihood of booking rejection for each trade lane. Higher values indicate greater exposure to booking disruption and reduced confidence in securing planned capacity.
High Risk: > 5% above average
Medium Risk: Between 5% below & 5% above average
Low Risk: > 5% below average
Booking Security Risk Forecast Heatmap
Booking Security Risk (BSR) shows the likelihood of booking rejection for each trade lane. Higher values indicate greater exposure to booking disruption and reduced confidence in securing planned capacity.
High Risk: > 5% above average
Medium Risk: Between 5% below & 5% above average
Low Risk: > 5% below average
The Reliability Risk Outlook highlights where service performance may affect lead times across key trade lanes. It combines carrier on-time arrival performance, delay severity, port performance, and scheduled transit time signals to show where disruption risk is increasing, easing, or remaining stable.
Service Reliability Forecast Signals
On-Time Arrival Performance
Near real-time signal showing the percentage of shipments arriving at the Port of Discharge on or before the carrier's promised schedule. Displays the last completed ISO week as the current reading, plus the 3 prior weeks to reveal trends.
Delay Severity
Identifies the dominant delay band and the proportion of shipments within that band, indicating whether delays are marginal or material.
Port Operating Conditions
Combines current port operating efficiency and expected vessel workload to assess whether operating pressure is building or easing.
Scheduled Transit Time
Aggregates carrier published sailing schedules to derive average transit days per trade lane for the next 4 weeks (first POL to first POD). Highlights whether scheduled transit times are lengthening, stable, or shortening relative to the rolling baseline.
On-Time Arrival and Delay Severity
On-time arrival performance measures the percentage of shipments arriving at the Port of Discharge on or before the carrier’s promised schedule. Delay severity identifies the dominant delay band and the proportion of TEU within that band, showing whether delays are marginal, moderate, or material. Together, these indicators show both the frequency and severity of reliability disruption across each trade lane.
Historical averages over the previous 12 months provide context for current performance, showing how it compares with the range observed over that period.
On-Time Performance by Month — Headhaul Lanes
Monthly average on-time arrival rates (%) for key headhaul trade lanes
On-Time Arrival Heatmap
Weekly on-time arrival performance across key trade lanes. Higher percentages indicate stronger schedule reliability and lower risk to planned arrival windows.
High Risk: < 20%
Medium Risk: Between 20% & 40%
Low Risk: > 40%
On-Time Performance by Month — Backhaul Lanes
Monthly average on-time arrival rates (%) for key backhaul trade lanes
On-Time Arrival Heatmap
Weekly on-time arrival performance across key trade lanes. Higher percentages indicate stronger schedule reliability and lower risk to planned arrival windows.
High Risk: < 20%
Medium Risk: Between 20% & 40%
Low Risk: > 40%
Port Operating Conditions
Port performance is represented by a Port Performance Signal that captures congestion and operational pressure using vessel queue, waiting time, turnaround time, and terminal utilization.
Regional Operational Stress
Regional operational stress shows whether port operating pressure is building, easing, or remaining stable across key regions. Higher signal values indicate greater congestion or operational pressure that may affect on-time performance.
Trade Lane Port Performance Heatmap
Port performance is represented by a short-term signal that captures congestion and operational pressure across each trade lane using origin and destination regional conditions, weighted by port TEU throughput.
High Risk: > 80
Medium Risk: 50-80
Low Risk: < 50
Scheduled Transit Time
Scheduled transit time shows average transit days from carrier published sailing schedules, measured from first POL to first POD in the origin and destination region. Longer transit times relative to baseline indicate weaker schedule confidence and higher risk to delivery planning.
The Carrier Risk Outlook compares on-time performance and Booking Security Risk across major carriers, showing how carrier selection can influence booking outcomes, service reliability and supply chain risk.
Carrier Risk Signals
On-Time Arrival Performance
Measures the proportion of shipments arriving at the port of discharge on or before the carrier's promised schedule. The spread across carriers highlights differences in realised service reliability.
Booking Security Risk
Estimates the share of bookings at risk of not securing capacity by combining initial carrier rejections with risk-adjusted pending decisions. Higher values indicate greater capacity-access risk.
Carrier Risk Matrix
Compare carriers by recent service reliability and forward booking security risk. Each point represents a de-identified carrier.
Higher combined risk - Lower on-time performance and elevated Booking Security Risk.
Capacity-access risk - Higher on-time performance but elevated Booking Security Risk.
Service reliability risk - Lower on-time performance despite lower Booking Security Risk.
Lower combined risk - Higher on-time performance and lower Booking Security Risk.
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