The Trade Lane Outlook provides a summary of the four-week risk forecast for three major trade lanes, highlighting where capacity, booking acceptance, service reliability, port performance, and transit time signals may create operational pressure.
Trade Lane Risk Matrix
A heatmap view of the four-week risk outlook, providing an at-a-glance view of the key risk areas: capacity, on-time performance, and transit time.
Signals are calculated from carrier schedules, forecast demand and supply, booking acceptance rates, shipment arrival performance, and port operating indicators to show where risk is expected to build, ease, or remain stable.
Risk Key
High: Elevated disruption risk, with a greater potential impact on booking acceptance, freight rates, or schedule and service reliability.
Medium: Emerging or moderate risk that should be monitored.
Low: Comparatively stable conditions with a lower risk of near-term disruption.
| Trade Lane | Capacity Risk | On-Time Risk | Transit Time Risk | Overall Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia → N. America | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → N. America).capacity} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → N. America).onTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → N. America).transitTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → N. America).overall} |
| Asia → Europe | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → Europe).capacity} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → Europe).onTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → Europe).transitTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → Europe).overall} |
| Europe → N. America | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Europe → N. America).capacity} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Europe → N. America).onTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Europe → N. America).transitTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Europe → N. America).overall} |
Major Regional Port On Time Arrival Risk
High Risk: ≥ 4 days delay
Medium Risk: 1 - 3 days delay
Low Risk: 0 days delay
Asia → N. America: D:S Ratio & BSR
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What this means
Major Regional Port On Time Arrival Risk
High Risk: ≥ 4 days delay
Medium Risk: 1 - 3 days delay
Low Risk: 0 days delay
Asia → Europe: D:S Ratio & BSR
{tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → Europe).graphNote}
What this means
Major Regional Port On Time Arrival Risk
High Risk: ≥ 4 days delay
Medium Risk: 1 - 3 days delay
Low Risk: 0 days delay
Europe → N. America: D:S Ratio & BSR
{tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Europe → N. America).graphNote}
What this means
The Capacity Risk Outlook shows where forecast demand may exceed planned carrier supply, and where tightening conditions may increase booking disruption or reduce confidence in securing space.
Capacity Risk Forecast Signals
Demand to Supply Ratio
Forecast cargo demand measured against the shipping capacity carriers plan to deploy. Indicates whether there is enough capacity to meet demand, and whether pressure is building from demand growth or capacity reductions.
Booking Security Risk
Estimates the share of bookings at risk of not securing capacity by combining initial carrier rejections with risk-adjusted pending decisions. Indicates when structural tightening begins to affect booking outcomes.
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast by Trade Lane
The demand to supply ratio compares forecast cargo demand with the shipping capacity carriers plan to deploy across each trade lane. Values above 100% indicate that forecast demand is expected to exceed planned supply, increasing the risk of tighter space, booking acceptance, and upward rate pressure.
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast Trend
Weekly demand to supply ratio movement across key trade lanes. Higher values indicate tightening capacity conditions and increased exposure to booking pressure.
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast Heatmap
The Demand to Supply Ratio heatmap shows where forecast demand is expected to sit relative to planned carrier capacity. Higher values indicate tighter space conditions and greater potential for booking rejection, service variability, and rate pressure.
High Risk: > 100%
Medium Risk: Between 90% & 99%
Low Risk: < 89%
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast Trend
Weekly demand to supply ratio movement across key trade lanes. Higher values indicate tightening capacity conditions and increased exposure to booking pressure.
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast Heatmap
The Demand to Supply Ratio heatmap shows where forecast demand is expected to sit relative to planned carrier capacity. Higher values indicate tighter space conditions and greater potential for booking rejection, service variability, and rate pressure.
High Risk: > 100%
Medium Risk: Between 90% & 99%
Low Risk: < 89%
Booking Security Risk Forecast (BSR)
Booking Security Risk estimates the likelihood that booking requests will not be accepted due to capacity constraints. It combines initial carrier rejections with risk-adjusted pending booking decisions to show when market tightening is also beginning to affect booking outcomes.
Booking Security Risk Forecast Heatmap
Booking Security Risk (BSR) shows the likelihood of booking rejection for each trade lane. Higher values indicate greater exposure to booking disruption and reduced confidence in securing planned capacity.
High Risk: > 5% above average
Medium Risk: Between 5% below & 5% above average
Low Risk: < 5% below average
Booking Security Risk Forecast Heatmap
Booking Security Risk (BSR) shows the likelihood of booking rejection for each trade lane. Higher values indicate greater exposure to booking disruption and reduced confidence in securing planned capacity.
High Risk: > 5% above average
Medium Risk: Between 5% below & 5% above average
Low Risk: < 5% below average
The Reliability Risk Outlook highlights where service performance may affect lead times across key trade lanes. It combines carrier on-time arrival performance, delay severity, port performance, and scheduled transit time signals to show where disruption risk is increasing, easing, or remaining stable.
Service Reliability Forecast Signals
On-Time Arrival Performance
Near real-time signal showing the percentage of shipments arriving at the Port of Discharge on or before the carrier's promised schedule. Displays the last completed ISO week as the current reading, plus the 3 prior weeks to reveal trends.
Delay Severity
Identifies the dominant delay band and the proportion of shipments within that band, indicating whether delays are marginal or material.
Port Operating Conditions
Combines current port operating efficiency and expected vessel workload to assess whether operating pressure is building or easing.
Scheduled Transit Time
Aggregates carrier published sailing schedules to derive average transit days per trade lane for the next 4 weeks (first POL to first POD). Highlights whether scheduled transit times are lengthening, stable, or shortening relative to the rolling baseline.
On-Time Arrival and Delay Severity
On-time arrival performance measures the percentage of shipments arriving at the Port of Discharge on or before the carrier’s promised schedule. Delay severity identifies the dominant delay band and the proportion of TEU within that band, showing whether delays are marginal, moderate, or material. Together, these indicators show both the frequency and severity of reliability disruption across each trade lane.
Historical averages over the previous 12 months provide context for current performance, showing how it compares with the range observed over that period.
On-Time Performance by Month — Headhaul Lanes
Monthly average on-time arrival rates (%) for key headhaul trade lanes
On-Time Arrival Heatmap
Weekly on-time arrival performance across key trade lanes. Higher percentages indicate stronger schedule reliability and lower risk to planned arrival windows.
High Risk: < 20%
Medium Risk: Between 20% & 40%
Low Risk: > 40%
On-Time Performance by Month — Backhaul Lanes
Monthly average on-time arrival rates (%) for key backhaul trade lanes
On-Time Arrival Heatmap
Weekly on-time arrival performance across key trade lanes. Higher percentages indicate stronger schedule reliability and lower risk to planned arrival windows.
High Risk: < 20%
Medium Risk: Between 20% & 40%
Low Risk: > 40%
Port Operating Conditions
Port performance is represented by a Port Performance Signal that captures congestion and operational pressure using vessel queue, waiting time, turnaround time, and terminal utilization.
Regional Operational Stress
Regional operational stress shows whether port operating pressure is building, easing, or remaining stable across key regions. Higher signal values indicate greater congestion or operational pressure that may affect on-time performance.
Trade Lane Port Performance Heatmap
Port performance is represented by a short-term signal that captures congestion and operational pressure across each trade lane using origin and destination regional conditions, weighted by port TEU throughput.
High Risk: > 80
Medium Risk: 50-80
Low Risk: < 50
Scheduled Transit Time
Scheduled transit time shows average transit days from carrier published sailing schedules, measured from first POL to first POD in the origin and destination region. Longer transit times relative to baseline indicate weaker schedule confidence and higher risk to delivery planning.
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